SoCon preview: League play opens tonight
With Southern Conference play beginning on Wednesday, I take a look at the league and break down reason for optimism as well as a cause for concern for each team:
Chattanooga (8-5)
Reason for optimism: The Mocs have a pair of guards in junior Trey Bonham and sophomore Honor Huff that will allow them to hang around in any game with their quickness and explosiveness, as well as one of the league's top post presences in sophomore Sam Alexis, who after a developmental freshman season behind Jake Stephens has been thrust into the spotlight with a pretty refined post game. He is an elite rebounder (3.2 offensive rebounds per game, 10.1 overall) and one of the better defensive presences in the league (2.6 blocks)
Cause for concern: I was optimistic about the Mocs' defense early in the season, only to realize a part of the reason for the improvement was because they played some pretty bad offenses. It has since regressed to being pretty much what it was last year, with an offense that hasn't to date been as good as last season's. There are guys that help on defense but haven't done much offensively to justify additional playing time, and some guys who are really good on offense but struggle defensively.
The Citadel (8-5)
Reason for optimism: Well, because the team is 8-5. I get it, I get it...three of those victories are non-Division I wins, but I ask: Who had the Bulldogs 8-5 at this point in the year with a win over Notre Dame? Now, there's little very aesthetically pleasing when you watch them play — every possession offensive possession is measured and deliberate while they will try to smother you defensively — but what matters a lot more is the win-loss record for now, because it raises eyebrows and gets them in the conversation to perhaps avoid playing on Friday in the SoCon tournament.
Cause for concern: Well, because it appears the Bulldogs are only going to be able to win games if they get the style in their favor. There are some really fast-paced teams in the SoCon that are going to try and dictate the tempo of the game (Furman, Samford) and the Bulldogs haven't shown they can't beat a quality Division I team if pace isn't in their favor.
East Tennessee State (8-5)
Reason for optimism: The Bucs have won five of their last six games, and have done so without doing anything spectacular for the most part (I guess they're winning the “toughness” and “resiliency” stats, because the Davidson and Jacksonville State wins were just that). Brooks Savage's first team is really a work in progress offensively, although the Bucs are coming off their best offensive game of the year in an 86-70 win over East Carolina last week. Defense is where ETSU is going to have to win games, and on that end they've been one of the best units in the league so far this season.
Cause for concern: Despite the improvements after the win over the Pirates last week, teams are going to make the Bucs consistently hit shots. ETSU still hasn't shot 50% from the field in a game this season, and eventually the Bucs are going to have to find some consistent success on that end.
Furman (6-7)
Reason for optimism: The Paladins could have gone out and played a cupcake schedule coming off their title last season, but instead they scheduled one that according to KenPom.com is rated as the second-toughest non-conference schedule in the league this year (behind Wofford). On top of that, they did so without (of course) not having the foresight of injuries that haven't kept four of the team's top seven players out multiple games so far. This team will be more formidable once Marcus Foster, JP Pegues and Alex Williams are all consistently in the lineup along with the others, I believe.
Cause for concern: Having a son that plays Division II ball, I will argue that there isn't a ton of separation between a SoCon player and a high-level D2 one (evidenced by Furman's starting point guard, PJay Smith, being a D2 transfer and playing at a high level this year). But there's no way to spin the Paladins' loss last week to Anderson, especially considering how it happened — 2-for-20 from 3, 16 turnovers, 14 missed free throws. And it wasn't just that game: the season-opening win over North Greenville, another D2, was pretty much just as listless. The other losses can be chalked up to the level of competition the Paladins have faced, and of course once everyone is back and had time to knock the rust off they could still be a factor, but Mike Bothwell and Jalen Slawson aren't walking through that door. This group is going to have to figure that out.
Mercer (7-6)
Reason for optimism: This season could have gone off the rails quickly when the Bears lost to D2 Clark Atlanta, and while there have been some rough spots along the way, Mercer will be taking a winning record into league play with a nice victory over Georgia State, albeit with consecutive non-Division I wins on the ledger. Offensively they've kind of figured out who they are — an efficient offensive team coming off its five best offensive games of the year. They're not going to jack up a bunch of 3s (only 32% of their shot attempts come from 3-point range, lowest in the league), but they shoot 36% from deep, so the Bears can make those shots if necessary. With that offense, they were able to control Georgia State, outlast Florida Gulf Coast and dominate Queens, with defense also playing a role in the latter contest. Will it be enough to avoid a Friday game in the tournament? That's unclear, but the Bears can win some in this league.
Cause for concern: It hasn't exactly been a murderer's row of a schedule during the win streak, but it's not as if Mercer was expected to be a juggernaut entering the year so they've basically taken care of business against teams as good as they are. Problem is, when they've played teams with a pulse, the Bears were carved up more often than not, which begs the question: Are they the team currently on the five-game win streak? Or the one who lost six of its first eight?
UNC Greensboro (9-4)
Reason for optimism: With three top-150 wins in the non-conference schedule (at Arkansas, Illinois-Chicago and Delaware), the Spartans have the best resume in the conference to date. They also have what's been the best player in the league so far in senior forward Mikeal Brown-Jones, who has averaged 19.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game early on. Keyshaun and Kobe Langley are terrors defensively on the perimeter, while Donovan Atwell has been a knockdown shooter.
Cause for concern: Brown-Jones has missed the last four games due to injury, and in his absence the Spartans have yet to beat a Division I opponent. When he's out there, the team has been proven to be largely unbeatable minus the early-season hiccup against Vanderbilt. We'll find out tonight if he's healthy enough to go because without him, this team falls to a middle-of-the-pack team in the league. He puts them over the top.
Samford (11-2)
Reason for optimism: Well, the Bulldogs have the best record in the league. They have the best offense, and they have the best defense. Achor Achor has emerged as one of the top bigs in the SoCon, and Rylan Jones has been one of the top place setters in the league. In Jaden Campbell and Jermaine Marshall, Samford has two of the most versatile players in the league. With 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes a game, it's also been the deepest one.
Cause for concern: Of 362 Division I teams in the country, Samford's non-conference schedule ranked 357th, a number that's been propped up by season-opening losses to Purdue and Virginia Commonwealth. During the team's current 11-game win streak, the averaging ranking of the teams they've beat is 259, and that doesn't include a pair of non-D1 wins that would pull the ranking down further. The Belmont and Louisiana wins are nice, but both occurred at home as Samford played nine consecutive games at Pete Hanna Center. The Bulldogs did win 21 games a year ago, but there was some smoke in mirrors as they weren't a consistent team: a six-game win streak, followed by a seven-game losing streak, with six and seven game win streaks sandwiching a two-game skid. Have the returners from that team learned from those ebbs and flows?
Virginia Military Institute (3-10)
Reason for optimism: The return of Brennan Watkins, who missed last season with an injury and has been the team's best offensive player, has been nice. So has the defense, which has at least allowed the Keydets to be competitive in a handful of games. But man, it must be hard to be a VMI fan to recruit a solid player like freshman Koree Cotton and watch him score 12 points per game, only to hit the transfer portal at semester break (although advanced stats show he wasn't exactly an efficient player).
Cause for concern: Well, it's January and the Keydets are still looking for their first win against a Division I team, and it's hard to see where that may happen. It's the hardest job in Division I basketball and after a modicum of success under Duggar Baucom and under Dan Earl (both of whom left for other SoCon jobs), it's been a rough start for Andrew Wilson, who has struggled to find the right mix of players willing to go through everything that being a VMI student-athlete entails.
Western Carolina (11-2)
Reason for optimism: On great teams, everybody seems to know their roles and thrive in them. Nobody in the league handles the ball as much as Vonterius Woolbright, one of the best — yet most unorthodox — players I've ever seen. But it works for one of the league's best units, which has had some struggles throughout the course of the year but still has three top-200 victories, including a two-point win over McNeese State on Nov. 18. The defense does an excellent job of taking away the 3-pointer and has a defensive interior presence in senior Charles Lampten, who blocks 1.4 shots per game in just 15.3 minutes.
Cause for concern: So much of what the Catamounts do is predicated by Woolbright, and that's great while he's in the game but there are struggles when he's out. That two-game losing streak (losses against Gardner-Webb and High Point) was a bit surprising, and it was defensive lapses that played a big role. The High Point loss is one thing, considering the firepower the Panthers possess, but the Gardner-Webb one was particularly perplexing considering the Bulldogs' offense isn't very good. Lastly, the offense is efficient but struggles at times from 3-point range. Can they win if a team requires the Catamounts to score from 3?
Wofford (7-6)
Reason for optimism: The Terriers have a good offensive attack, that has really only had one bad performance (against Canisius) so far this season. Earlier in the season, they were just jacking up a bunch of 3s but as the season has progressed, so has the offense that has allowed them to be much more efficient on that end. They have one of the league's top point guards in Corey Tripp, has 46 assists to just 18 turnovers and is averaging a team-high 15.3 points per game. He's not the best shooter, but they have plenty of those on the roster with five guys hitting at least 10 3s and shooting at least 36% from deep.
Cause for concern: While the Terriers' offense will allow it to win a game or two in conference play, the defense has the ability to cost it as they've struggled on that end all season. The only solid defensive effort they've had came against a MTSU team that sports one of the worst offenses in the country: the others came against D2 Southern Wesleyan that's 2-11 and NAIA Kentucky Christian, which is 4-9.
Gene's rankings heading into SoCon play:
1. Western Carolina – roster health puts them at the top
2. UNC Greensboro – when will Mikeal Brown-Jones return?
3. Samford – Bulldogs could be No. 1, but I can't reward the non-conference schedule
4. Furman – Paladins played a tough non-conference schedule, but there's zero excuse for losing to D2 Anderson. I don't care who's healthy
5. Wofford – Like 1-3, 5 and 6 are pretty interchangable to me. Wofford beat Gardner-Webb by more and lost to Lipscomb by less than the Mocs, so they get this week's nod.
6. UTC — defense and quality depth are concerns to me.
7. ETSU – Bucs haven't shot 50% in a game this season, which is impressive considering they've played two non-D1s. Defense will keep them around, though.
8. The Citadel — Bulldogs have been the most impressive team in the league, relative to expectations.
9. Mercer — after slow start, there's a chance the Bears are righting the ship.
10. VMI — Just keep on fighting, Keydets.
Have a story idea? Or just want to scream at me? You can contact me at ghenley05@gmail.com or find me on Twitter @genehenley3.